Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season
Hall of Fame 2012 Elections have begun! Ryan1000 15:09, February 24, 2012 (UTC) Future start Well, I felt like making this forum for the future 2012 season(Yes, it is July 1st, 2011), and I have every other forum made too. The Atlantic hurricane season's betting pools are Here, the Pacific hurricane season's betting pools are Here, and I think we will have a 9-14 storm season, a 4-6 hurricane season, and 2-3 major hurricane season in 2012, possibly from an El Nino event. Ryan1000 03:11, July 1, 2011 (UTC) :Wow you started this early. I'll post my predictions when the 2011 hurricane season ends. Though I guess I'll make some of my bets now and change them as the year gets closer. Yqt1001 03:30, July 1, 2011 (UTC) ::I wanted to begin it primarily for the SHem, but this season will also be a future class one. I'm thinking we will have a pretty silent year in the Atlantic in 2012; I think this because we have a neutral start as of now, but we will continue to have conditions slowly change to El Nino like 2009, which will slowly hinder activity in the Atlantic and strengthen the Pacific. The SHem will also likely have a pretty good year, particularly the SPac and somewhat the Australian region. Ryan1000 03:46, July 1, 2011 (UTC) :::I'll make my predictions nearer the time as well, when we know more about what sort of season we are in for. We are likely to have El Nino conditions at some point during this year, though. HurricaneFiona 09:26, July 2, 2011 (UTC) :Not sure about that. We will likely have one in 2013, but in 2012, we are actually likely to see a revive of La Nina or stay neutral. I also have been thinking of making betting pools worldwide in this year, but we are still in 2011. I made the SHem betting pools at least... Ryan1000 17:55, July 13, 2011 (UTC ::We may get a weak La Nina return this season, but I think we're staying neutral. I'm going with 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 majors. OWEN2011 16:24, July 16, 2011 (UTC) :I made my newest blog post for what I think we will see in 2012. Anyone who wants to see it may view it here. Ryan1000 18:38, December 3, 2011 (UTC) :Here are my predictions for 2012: 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC) :I really would want to reach William next year but it depends my forecast for now will be 16 names storms 7-9 hurricanes and 5-6 majorsAllanjeffs 22:22, December 14, 2011 (UTC) :Update: Because there is a more likely chance of El Nino/ENSO, I have revised my forecast to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Andrew444TalkBlog 03:05, December 15, 2011 (UTC) :Really??? I read that was going to be a neutral year 2012 but we will seeAllanjeffs 23:52, December 15, 2011 (UTC) ::La Nina returned to us in September of 2011, and it could persist until June or July 2012. Even if we do turn to El Nino at some point in 2012, I don't think it will happen in spring, but rather Autumn, so the activity could still be above average per my blog post predictions. Ryan1000 15:38, December 17, 2011 (UTC) And 2012 has officially begun! Anyone besides me and Andrew have predictions for this year? Ryan1000 01:21, January 1, 2012 (UTC) I already put my prediction look a little up and you`ll see Allanjeffs 17:43, January 3, 2012 (UTC) Eh, okay, anyone who hasn't made any calls yet have predictions for 2012? Ryan1000 04:39, January 4, 2012 (UTC) Have all of you note that when we have a El Nino we always end with 9 or 7 name storms no more no less Allanjeffs 02:20, January 8, 2012 (UTC) Actually, it's expected to be neutral in 2012. I don't expect El Nino until next year. I'm surprised how conservative the're being for 2012 when we're expected to be neutral. Even if we do transition to El Nino this year, we won't really see the changes until next year. Ryan1000 12:39, January 8, 2012 (UTC) :One worrying factor to me is that there is mostly heat just remaining in the Caribbean and the GoM, the CATL is pretty cold. There could be a few more worrying storms this year than say 2011 in the Caribbean and GoM. Yqt1001 15:00, January 8, 2012 (UTC) ::That doesn't mean 2012 will be bad for us. Wind shear is also another factor; last year I thought 2011 would be bad for us but instead of potentially getting a 2005, we got a repeat of 2010 impact-wise. 2012 could do the same thing (which is still bad), but we can't assure this year will be a bad one. I personally think this is our lucky naming list. Only 3 names have ever changed from it since 1979. =) On the other hand, next year's naming list has featured a retiree every time it was used before... Ryan1000 04:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC) ::Maybe this year the list would retire some names because when this season start something always happen and it end with just 7-9 name storms maybe this year would be an exceptionAllanjeffs 20:45, January 16, 2012 (UTC) :::Never know... The naming list of last year only had 2 retirees before 2005, and after that year alone, there were 7 names off that list. I don't know whether or not we will have a bad season, but since 2005, the tropics haven't settled down in ATL. We've had devastating years ever since except in 2006 and 2009. The pre-season forecasts for 2005 looked just like this and the next thing they know we get the most active year ever in ATL. I'll wait until later to see what 2012 has in store for us. Ryan1000 01:29, January 17, 2012 (UTC) :::People have you all look at the models they are developind STS Albert in the coming days if this trully happens we could our fisrt name storm in February since a long time.Allanjeffs 12:58, February 2, 2012 (UTC) ::::There is some hefty shear aloft in the Gulf of Mexico right now, but if it settles enough to see Alberto it would be the first storm to develop in the Atlantic Basin in February in 60 years. The 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm (which occured 60 years ago on this day) was the last such storm. It hit southern Florida as a 40 mph storm, causing only minimal damage. Alberto, if it forms, likely won't become much in terms of strength. I'd think a TS (or STS) peak of 65 mph, possibly 70 mph, at max from that storm in the GOM. Ryan1000 14:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC) It's May now and I've got caught into the pre-hurricane season hype so here are my totals. I'll update my final betting pool ideas today as well. El-Nino seems likely for peak season so I don't expect many storms, but conditions seem better than last year as far as stronger Caribbean and GoM storms go. We'll see what happens but nonetheless here are my predictions: 11-13, 7-8, 2-3 Yqt1001 18:45, May 6, 2012 (UTC) 1st CSU Forecast Here it is! Andrew444TalkBlog 23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC) I'm very surprised as to how conservative WSI and TSR are for 2012... They said the La Nina is rapidly collapsing and we should get a neutral season, but we won't get El Nino until late 2012 or 2013. But still, 14-7-3? And 12-7-3? That seems like bustcasting to me. I don't think 2012 will be a slow season at all. I still think it will be an active, above average season for the Atlantic and near-normal for everywhere else. More or less, 2012 reminds me of 2008 or 2003, but not 2009 by any means. Ryan1000 19:40, December 25, 2011 (UTC) 2nd CSU Forecast It's out. Currently they forecast a near-normal to below-normal season with only 10 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 maors. Maybe my blog post prediction might not be so accurate after all. Still, we have a chance to see a major hurricane landfall, and after not seeing one for 4 years, one could say we're due now. Ryan1000 15:34, April 5, 2012 (UTC) Damned forum...Deleted my last post. Reposted it, and yeah, we're looking at a 2009 more than a 2008 now. Ryan1000 20:00, April 5, 2012 (UTC) A link is here. --AndrewTalk To Me 01:20, April 8, 2012 (UTC) Another thing that should be noted is there is a slight modification NHC made to the Saffir-Simpson Scale for this hurricane season. They said from now on a category 3 is from 111-129 mph, a category 4 is from 130-156 mph, and a category 5 is 157 mph or higher. Nothing else is new. Ryan1000 21:42, April 8, 2012 (UTC) They better retire Irene this week if not I would really be piss.Allanjeffs 20:44, April 10, 2012 (UTC) There's not much else to talk about (retirements part 3 is on the 2011 ATL forum), but the main reason I think it's certain now is because the damage was rescently upped to 18.7 billion, per the NHC's updated TCR yesterday. I never expected it to go up that much, and if that didn't happen, there would have been a chance it wouldn't be retired. Now there's pretty much no chance Irene won't be retired. Irene's getting the boot, one way or another. It could be announced this Thursday or Friday, when the meeings are really under way, or, like they usually are, the WMO could be sluggish to releasing their reports to the press and might not do it until several days after the meeting, like they did last year. The tropics are taking a nap for some time until then. Lee and Jova are also potential players, but Irene is the only one you can really look forward to being retired. Ryan1000 20:01, April 11, 2012 (UTC) Now the 2nd TSR forecast is out. 12.5 tropical storms, 5.6 hurricanes, 2.6 major hurricanes, and a ACE index of 95 are predicted. Look here. AndrewTalk To Me 22:10, April 12, 2012 (UTC) October 15L.OSCAR 96L.INVEST 10% atm, but will be rather slow to develop, maybe not even until it reaches the western Caribbean. Ryan1000 21:09, September 30, 2012 (UTC) Invest 96L now. Even though it might become a TS, the models actually recurve it east well away from the Lessers. It probrably won't become more than 50-55 knots anyway. Ryan1000 03:55, October 1, 2012 (UTC) 30%Allanjeffs 12:37, October 1, 2012 (UTC) 40% now, might be Oscar. Ryan1000 20:11, October 1, 2012 (UTC) 60% people Oscar might finally come after two bust.Allanjeffs 00:01, October 2, 2012 (UTC) Here comes Oscar's debut as a tropical cyclone. Also, if this does become Oscar, it'll mark the first time since 2003-2005 that the Atlantic Ocean has been able to produce three sucessive seasons of 15+ storms (NOTE: if you count Catarina, 2003-2005 had three back-to-back seasons of 16 storms). AndrewTalk To Me 00:37, October 2, 2012 (UTC) Please be Oscar! It'll be its first naming ever since they created the new lists in 1979. STO12 (talk) 01:21, October 2, 2012 (UTC) yep me too from the six lists this is the only that has not reach the O letter.the gfs make this a strong tropical storm and the ships a major lets hope for a major as its not going to affect land.Allanjeffs 01:32, October 2, 2012 (UTC) I'm not sure about Oscar-to be becoming a major hurricane. Environmental conditions will only be favorable for 2-3 more days until it turns out to sea and weakens from there on out. And this year has the potential to make more than 15 storms if we keep going on after Oscar. If we get 3 more storms in October and one more in November, we'd have a 19-storm season. That would make 2010-2012 the first time we would have 19 storms in 3 straight years, but it would be a record if we had 18 or even 17 alone. So if we get two more storms after this, it would be a record by itself. Ryan1000 07:36, October 2, 2012 (UTC) Ok.... Oppa Oscar Style!! :D I think he would wander in the ocean 16:00, October 2, 2012 (UTC) 70% chance of becoming Tropical Depression Fifteen. Off topic, but the name Oscar reminds me of Oscar the Grouch. AndrewTalk To Me 20:56, October 2, 2012 (UTC) 80% could become a td tonight or tomorrow morning.Allanjeffs 23:54, October 2, 2012 (UTC) Later this morning. It'll be heading out to sea almost immediately though, moving into the area where Nadine sat in for more than a week. Outside chance at becoming a hurricane. Ryan1000 03:47, October 3, 2012 (UTC) 90% now. Here comes...Ryan1000 12:33, October 3, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression Fifteen OK!!! NEWS!! Tropical depression 15 is now active!! He is in Western Africa and is expected to be oscar (who will win an oscar award and a gold medal at the paralympics 100m *oscar pistorious, epic!*) and will be only a lil' tropical storm floating just off the coast of the Sahara! Oscar is now HERE! HE WAS BORN THIS WAY! :D So, what d'ya think of this? Oscar being a lil' tropical storm? Not another hurricane again! But I want my patty!! waaaa! *I think Miss Pattz would be stronger though!* 18:35, October 3, 2012 (UTC) :ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT OCCUR.Allanjeffs 20:47, October 3, 2012 (UTC) ::Going to be a fishie.--Isaac829 20:13, October 3, 2012 (UTC) ::Might not become a ts read at what the NHC has to say. ::Unless TD 15 Michael or Daniels out, it'll just be another Joyce (but this is what I said about Michael, and look what happened). AndrewTalk To Me 21:16, October 3, 2012 (UTC) Oh no! The path is now beginning to keep it a tropical depression, no! Please be Oscar! D: STO12 (talk) 21:37, October 3, 2012 (UTC) I call minimal tropical storm out of this, 40-45 mph winds. Nothing more or less. Told you the environment wasn't that favorable. It has one or two days to become Oscar. It'll be dead by this Friday or Weekend. Ryan1000 22:16, October 3, 2012 (UTC) ::I want to see Oscar too, but I don't want a waste of a name like Joyce. Let this stay a TD. Unless this season pulls a 2002 or 2006, there should be plenty more opportunities for a decently strong Oscar, especially in the NW Caribbean (Rina, Paula, Richard, Ida, and throw in Paloma for the really crazy stuff). Remember, Michael is our only major of the season so far, and he just barely made the grade. --HurricaneMaker99 23:46, October 3, 2012 (UTC) ::::The last time this list was used in 2006 there was not a single Tropical Depression of that season that didn't become a TS. This year is on par with doing that too, unless this doesn't make it to Oscar. I want it to become something big, but if it meets the qualifications for even only a minor TS, we'll have to go with it. Ryan1000 00:11, October 4, 2012 (UTC) ::::I agree if it meet the qualifications for an upgrade lets do it no matter the intensity.Allanjeffs 01:39, October 4, 2012 (UTC) .FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...Allanjeffs 02:56, October 4, 2012 (UTC) :::::Hm... AL, 15, 2012100400, , BEST, 0, 189N, 421W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 130, 0, 0, 1013, 210, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OSCAR, M, --Isaac829 02:32, October 4, 2012 (UTC) :::::the 15 tropical storm of the season has develop base on the ATCF the curse may be broken waiting for the NHC for confirmation.Allanjeffs 02:38, October 4, 2012 (UTC) :::::Sorry hurricane Maker but Oscar is here.Allanjeffs 02:56, October 4, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Oscar Lol yeah I saw. He's here, but already doomed. --HurricaneMaker99 02:59, October 4, 2012 (UTC) And Oscar the Grouch made his Atlantic debut! And we got a Florence/Joyce 2.0. Sorry, Liz, but Oscar isn't going to win any Oscars AndrewTalk To Me 03:12, October 4, 2012 (UTC) Yay! We have Oscar! I've been waiting for this all year! This is the first time in Atlantic history a tropical cyclone has been named Oscar, Hooray! Even though it going to be ripped apart pretty soon. STO12 (talk) 03:16, October 4, 2012 (UTC) Yeah. Of course, 2000 would have had Oscar if the last subtropical storm was named, and it still counts as 15 storms overall in that season. He's falling apart already. By tomorrow afternoon, he (and Nadine) will be dead. Ryan1000 11:11, October 4, 2012 (UTC) When Patty forms if it forms it would be a record breaking storm.Allanjeffs 21:22, October 4, 2012 (UTC) Allan, that depends whether or not you count the South Atlantic. If you do, the record for the most active three sucessive Atlantic seasons will actually be tied (as I said above) (2003 made it to Peter, 2004 made it to Otto + Catarina, 2005 made it to Zeta + the Azores subtropical storm). If you don't, then Patty will indeed be a record breaker. AndrewTalk To Me 21:30, October 4, 2012 (UTC) 2003-2005 had 59 storms in all 3 years, excluding the SAtl. 2010-2012 has had 53 thus far. We'd need to get to Alpha (storm 22) to break 2003-2005's record. If you include the South Atlantic, we'd only need to get to William, since there was Anita in 2010 and Arani in 2011, vs only Catarina in 2004. We'd need 25 storms this year to have 2011-2012 beat 2004-2005 as the most active back-to-back seasons ever, but I wouldn't look forward to seeing that happening. Ryan1000 21:45, October 4, 2012 (UTC) :OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING. Apparently he will not win the HAMMYS :P --Isaac829 02:40, October 5, 2012 (UTC) he keeps getting stronger even though I think this or 60mph will be its peak. I would be very surprised if it becomes a hurricane.Allanjeffs 03:05, October 5, 2012 (UTC) : The Oscar joke made me lol. NHC's been awfully cheeky this season. They had fun with Kirk, Nadine, and now Oscar. I was particularly fond of their farewell to Nadine: "Bye bye, Nadine...what a long and strange trip it's been." For future reference guys, please leave sections on recently dissipated storms up for a few days before archiving them. Archiving them as soon as the last advisory is issued is premature and cuts off a potentially active and relevant discussion. As for Oscar, I actually think he's done pretty well, considering the circumstances. I was hoping he was going to stick around for a little longer but that low in the north Atlantic has gone straight up beast mode, dominating most of the Atlantic basin. I hate to be the bearer of bad news guys, but El Nino is settling in and the Atlantic is already starting to shut down. The Caribbean and GOM are now dominated by westerly shear. There's a chance we could see another brief tropical storm like Oscar, but other than that, I think the season's pretty much over. It made the most of the time it had, but was remarkably short on power with just one major hurricane. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 08:24, October 5, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Oscar Another fail.--Isaac829 19:34, October 5, 2012 (UTC) Poof. Without winning any awards. AndrewTalk To Me 23:02, October 5, 2012 (UTC) Actually the El Niño is faltering skyfury as Dr masters says I think we could squeeze three more named storms and one major probably in the Caribbean and would probably hit Cuba.Allanjeffs 23:27, October 5, 2012 (UTC) Sorry Eric. I'll archive storms a little later after the storm dissipates. Well, Nadine could have her own archive. And no, 2012 isn't over yet. The El Nino was only temporary and we still could get 3-4 named storms before the season is out. Hell, we could move back to La Nina next year. Just because we have some shear now doesn't mean we keep having it. In fact, some models are picking up on a low that could form near the Bahamas next Monday or Tuesday from the trough emerging off the East Coast and that could become Patty. So no, don't give up on this season yet. October has had many nasty surprises, including the most powerful hurricane on record in the Atlantic and the deadliest Atlantic hurricane in over 200 years. I wouldn't quit on 2012 just because it looks bad now that October just begun. I said it was over before at times like this and I really spoke too soon. I won't do that again, especially for a season like this. 'Ryan1000' 03:02, October 6, 2012 (UTC) Hi Oscar! Oh... bye Oscar! And yes Ryan, October looks to be a good, and bad, month for cyclones. —12R. '' 21:48, October 6, 2012 (UTC) : Oh I know there have been some nasty surprises in October, but none of them have happened in 30 knots of shear. I'm not saying Patty won't happen, but I am saying don't expect a storm of any significance for the remainder of the season. Given the increasingly negative and persistent upper level condtions, I seriously doubt there will be another hurricane this year and it wouldn't surprise me if there isn't another storm period. Throughout the Atlantic, shear is exceptionally hostile (up to 60 knots in the GOM, 40-50 in the W. Atl, and 20-30 in the Caribbean). I expect this to continue. I've seen this before. Upper level troughs and mid-latitude frontal systems have been digging deep into the Gulf lately, bringing nasty shear conditions along with them...their season is over. The Caribbean and the rest of Hurricane Alley is dominated by persistent westerly winds. This is unlikely to change for the remainder of the season. There's a chance a storm could find an upper level ridge to camp under for a few days and become an Oscar-like storm. Other than that, we're done. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 07:04, October 7, 2012 (UTC) ::: We still have 3 more weeks until October is over. The season actually undergoes a secondary peak by about October 19, so conditions actually could become more favorable one more time until they die off by November. Even so, we still can't let our guard down either way, since there have been surprises. But then again, not all of those surprises turned out to be what they were initially feared to. Hurricane Rina of last year was one such storm. The precursor storm that would become Rina was forecast to, at one point by the models, crash into Cuba as a monstrous 140 mph major hurricane, but in reality we barely got a major hurricane from Rina (it was upgraded in post-season), and it only lightly tapped the Yucatan as a dying tropical storm. The point i'm saying is, it's only October 7th. October is far from over and it's not out of the question we could get a strong storm in the Caribbean or GOM later this month. 'Ryan1000' 11:59, October 7, 2012 (UTC) This isn't wholly relevant to Oscar, but 60 knots of shear?!?! Holy cow! I wonder how rough a time a strong hurricane would be having when traveling into such shear conditions? --HurricaneMaker99 02:48, October 9, 2012 (UTC) It won't last forever. It will settle down one last time in the next week or two until it dies out in November. Our secondary peak is 10 days away. 'Ryan1000' 16:50, October 9, 2012 (UTC) 16L.PATTY 97L.INVEST As I said Eric, never give up on a season. 10% atm, and could be Patty later next week. 'Ryan1000' 17:39, October 6, 2012 (UTC) :It's in a pretty unfavorable environment though, but is expected to move out of the unfavorable area and possibly develop. Patty hopefully! STO12 (talk) 19:30, October 6, 2012 (UTC) :TBH, I'm more excited about Olivia than 97L. If this ever does become tropical and subtropical, better do it soon. AndrewTalk To Me 22:31, October 6, 2012 (UTC) :::After it moves out of the shear over the next few days, we could potentially see Patty, but not in the next 2 days. 'Ryan1000' 12:01, October 7, 2012 (UTC) :::Agree the NHC is flying tomorrow into this system if it continues to organize.Allanjeffs 15:24, October 7, 2012 (UTC) Down to 10%, no Patty I don't think. It's in such an unfavorable environment that development will most likely not happen. Aw well, doesn't mean an invest won't pop up for the rest of the season. right? :/ STO12 (talk) 23:50, October 7, 2012 (UTC) Actually the gfs is showing three storms in its run.two in the caribbean like 2008 when we have td 16 and Omar and 1 in the Eastern Atlantic like Nana.Allanjeffs 04:58, October 8, 2012 (UTC) Oh, well. Never looked like it had a chance. AndrewTalk To Me 02:12, October 9, 2012 (UTC) SHIPS briefly expects it to peak at 35 knots in 2 days, but I think that won't happen. Probrably not this one. 'Ryan1000' 13:59, October 9, 2012 (UTC) I think this might have a better chance than it has before! I just saw recent satellite loops on the system, and a continuous spin with deep thunderstorm convection around the center is occurring. This might in fact pull a "Jose (2011)" and become Patty! I'm not 100% sure though. STO12 (talk) 03:02, October 10, 2012 (UTC) Sorry, Otto, but 97L is off the TWO now. Doesn't mean it'll pop back up. AndrewTalk To Me 11:54, October 10, 2012 (UTC) this thing is looking very good right now may become a td later today even though its at 10%Allanjeffs 20:41, October 10, 2012 (UTC) Not expecting that to happen. If it does make it to something, make it to Patty (please). I don't want any unnamed depressions this season. We've already done a great job of that so far, in both the ATL and EPac. I hope 97L doesn't break that curse. 'Ryan1000' 22:24, October 10, 2012 (UTC) This can be like 2008 the sixteen td didn`t strengh that year.waiting for the two to see the chances of 97L.Allanjeffs 23:26, October 10, 2012 (UTC) I want this to become either TS Patty or nothing at all. I'd like to see a season with no unnamed depressions, like the 2006 Atlantic season, but they had an unnamed tropical storm discovered in post-season at the same time Beryl formed in July. If we get no unnamed depressions this year in either ATL or EPac (which both have none right now atm), it would be the first time to have no unnamed storms ''period in either season, assuming there are no post-season tropical storms discovered. Ryan1000 23:55, October 10, 2012 (UTC) Similar to 98L, organization of 97L has increased, and it now has a 20% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 00:07, October 11, 2012 (UTC) Up to 50% might become a depression but I am doubting a ts hope it doesn`t form unless it becomes named.Allanjeffs 05:49, October 11, 2012 (UTC) The models are split on where 97L will go. Some take it out to sea, while some move it in the opposite direction towards Cuba and the Bahamas. We'll see. Since this and 98L are both at 50%, it's a race to which will become Patty first. The latter would be Rafael, unless one of the two doesn't make it. Ryan1000 13:50, October 11, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression Sixteen We might not see a TS out of this.--Isaac829 20:07, October 11, 2012 (UTC)ç Actually is a TS now.AL, 16, 2012101118, , BEST, 0, 258N, 723W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,. History has been made for this list.Allanjeffs 20:36, October 11, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Patty now officially in the NHC page.Allanjeffs 20:43, October 11, 2012 (UTC) :Did not see that coming.--Isaac829 21:16, October 11, 2012 (UTC) :::So 97L did make it. So far, so good, but it'll die soon. Ryan1000 21:21, October 11, 2012 (UTC) :For the record, this is A.) the seventh Atlantic 'P' named storm on record, AND: B.) The second time in Atlantic history we've seen back-to-back years of 16 named storms (and even this is only if you count 2004's Catarina). AndrewTalk To Me 21:19, October 11, 2012 (UTC) :::And the first time we saw 3 straight years of 16 storms in ATL, again only if you count Catarina. If 98L makes it to Rafael, it'll be the first time we got 17 storms for 3 straight years, and we could also do it for 18 and even 19 storms too. That's pretty remarkable. Ryan1000 21:26, October 11, 2012 (UTC) I just knew it would be Patty! The name Patty does seem like it should be a weak storm, teh larger system should be "Rafael", which in my opinion is a strong storm name. STO12 (talk) 21:42, October 11, 2012 (UTC) To be honest, I think both this and Rafael will be only tropical storms. Rafael has an outside shot to become a hurricane, but not a very strong one (C1 at most). Ryan1000 00:41, October 12, 2012 (UTC) 98L.INVEST AOI:Central Atlantic Popped on the TWO. Currently at 10% chance for development in the next two da ys. AndrewTalk To Me 11:36, October 8, 2012 (UTC) Now this system should become Patty, unless the the other systems pulls a "Jose (2011)", then it would be Rafael. STO12 (talk) 23:51, October 8, 2012 (UTC) If anything, it'll be Patty. 97L is in an enviorment gradually getting worse. AndrewTalk To Me 02:12, October 9, 2012 (UTC) 98L.INVEST Invested and up to 20%. 98L could possibly be a long-term threat, but nothing is expected from it in the next few days. ECMWF is very underwhelmed by this invest. GFS sees it heading northeast of Puerto Rico and heading out to sea without becoming anything significant. It might actually recurve north before it even reaches the Lessers and head out to sea without doing (or becoming) anything. Ryan1000 13:59, October 9, 2012 (UTC) Now up to 30% as organization improves. AndrewTalk To Me 11:54, October 10, 2012 (UTC) I'm not sure if 98L is going to be in a real hurry to head north, like the GFS, Euro, and other models are suggesting. I just don't think it will head to Puerto Rico and the Virgins. 98L should head into the Caribbean sea and develop into something when it reaches the Westernmost Caribbean sea. I see no reason why it shouldn't. Ryan1000 17:17, October 10, 2012 (UTC) Gale force winds have been reported in heavy squalls from 98L. With a better organization and more conductive conditions, this invest is up to a 40% chance of development for the next 48 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 00:04, October 11, 2012 (UTC) Organization even better...50%. AndrewTalk To Me 11:43, October 11, 2012 (UTC) The models are still strongly suggesting a sharp northward turn from this invest. GFS actually has it completely missing the Lesser Antillies to the east. The others move it to PR and the Virgins. Not one of them thinks this will make it to the western Caribbean, but that's where I would expect 98L to head toward. Ryan1000 13:50, October 11, 2012 (UTC) Up to 70%! Here comes Rafael! STO12 (talk) 23:58, October 11, 2012 (UTC) It'll be heading into Puerto Rico and the Virgins over the next few days, but only as a TS. I'm not expecting a hurricane out of this. Ryan1000 00:41, October 12, 2012 (UTC) New Hurricane Wiki Main Page I think my renovated page can get more feedback here, so here you go: Transcluded from my blog: Hello! Thanks for coming here. Today I was thinking that our Hurricane Wiki main page was lacking detail, so I decided to make a test rennovation of it. I am currently accepting comments and feedback on my new rennovated main page that you can find here. Comment on this blog post if you want to send feedback. You can suggest more things or any fixes I can incorporate into the sandbox before I can replace the main page with it. Thanks for your feedback in advance. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 00:06, May 20, 2012 (UTC) : I like the new homepage.Cyclone10 00:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :: I actually think that it looks pretty good. We can make the new homepage official by the start of June; by then we should have reccieved enough feedback from everyone. Ryan1000 10:32, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :: This new homepage is truly awesome! AndrewTalk To Me 11:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :::: One quick question: what's the main thing about the article of the month thing I see there? Will it automatically be updated or will we choose what article goes there on IRC? Ryan1000 13:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :::::: Regarding the article about the month.... we could either do a monthly pick on IRC anywhere from 0 to 3 days in advance of the next month, or we could create a set for the year. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 13:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance Here's mine: *Alberto - 0% - No. *Beryl - 10% - Wasn't that much damage. *Chris - 0% - It's a early hurricane, but I still doubt it. *Debby - 25% - Wasn't as bad as I expected. *Ernesto - 10% - See you in 2018, Ernie. *Florence - 0% - Probably not. *Gordon - 5% - See Beryl. *Helene - 0% - Less damage than Ernesto. *Isaac - 45% - Maybe and maybe not. *Joyce - 0% - Florence's twin. *Kirk - 0% - See ya next time! *Leslie - 5% - See Ernesto. *Michael - 0% - Nope. *Nadine - 0% - See Gordon. *Oscar - 0% - Can't you tell? *Patty - 0% - See Oscar. Isaac829 21:31, October 11, 2012 (UTC) :If it floats your boat; mine has a hole in it, though. Yes, retirement predictions can be fun, and I can't fault anyone for being excited at the early activity in the ATL and EPAC, but what's the point of doing these sections after just one or two failures that couldn't get the boot if they tried? I did mine just after Don last year, but I think just after the "A" storm is pushing it... but then again, this is the first time I've been here for the early-season (started posting in November 2010, then disappeared until last July), so if starting this early is a custom, then fine. But I won't post mine until we're at least through Debby (or until we get a significant storm, should she, Beryl, or Chris become such). --HurricaneMaker99 19:40, May 22, 2012 (UTC) Yeah, I don't see the huge point in starting this section after the first storm in the season. Normally, I wait until we get 4-6 storms until I name my canidates in part 1, or a notable storm altogether. I began part 1 in 2010 in EPac right after the first storm in that year, but Agatha did have a reasonable chance of retirement. Alberto and Aletta do not. So can we perhaps wait a little more in the future? Ryan1000 23:50, May 23, 2012 (UTC) I don`t know if to make predictions for the ENP because they never retire names with good numbers of retirement nowdays they didn`t even retire Agatha that kill a lot of people but retire Alma that just because represent soul I don`t think that is a good excuse for taking her out and not Agatha.Allanjeffs 22:59, May 31, 2012 (UTC) Retirements for Mexico and Central America are weird and most often random. Mexico retired Kenna of 2002, which killed 4 and did 101 million in damage and they didn't retire Karl or Alex of 2010, which did nearly 8 billion in damage combined. Alex was described by some as Monterrey's worst hurricane since 1909 and Karl hit Mexico's biggest port city as a major hurricane (also described as the worst hurricane to hit Veracruz in a long time), but wasn't retired. If you want to talk about snubs, don't go past Gordon. Karl was perhaps the worst damage snub ever, or a second to Juan of 1985. Ryan1000 01:01, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :So that's why one has to look for more than numbers alone to predict a retirement (such as post-impact press coverage, to name a factor), as I said I think during that debate about 2 years ago. Darren23 | 01:37, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :Actually Ryan Central America retire almost anything that hits them except Matthew because I think the values of property damage were exagerate and its true Darren press coverage induce retirement with Mitch for example almost every octuber the press remember Mitch and they do an hour of remember of how much things it destroy and all that , meanwhile with Matthew no one remembers him. if you came here you will se how weird it is to someone in here not remember the name Mitch,supposedly is bad luck in here that name.Allanjeffs 04:20, June 1, 2012 (UTC) I don't always care what the press says. What they view as bad isn't always what others view as bad. Hurricane Hanna of 2008, for example, didn't get that much press coverage after it struck Haiti(certainly not as much as Gustav and Ike did), but a storm that kills over 500 people still should be retired IMO. Hanna killed more people than Gustav and Ike combined for christ's sake. I don't care what anyone says; that's bad one way or another. Wouldn't you view 537 people dead as bad enough for retirement? Damage and media attention do play a role in notability, but it doesn't always correspond to what really is the case. Personally, I don't like the fact the Atlantic gets all the attention (the WPac and NIO storms are certainly more notable by death toll), but I know can't really change that. The media of the North Atlantic overhypes hurricanes when they approach the coastlines of Central America and the U.S, but the reason why is because they want to get people to evacuate and out of harm's way, because since the Mitch/Katrina tragedies ect, they don't want that to ever happen again. I don't know if it's because we "care more" in the U.S. or Central America, but I don't always view hurricanes based on the amount of media attention they get. A similar practice has been applied by the National Weather Service since the tragedy of the Joplin Tornado of 2011; the're using a more urgent voice in tornado warnings to get people out of harm's way, but that doesn't mean the tornado was as bad as they said it would be. Ryan1000 06:21, June 1, 2012 (UTC) ::I'm talking about indicators that give a good idea if a storm name will be retired. Damages and deaths alone, due to past experience, cannot solely be used to determine if a storm will be retired. Admittedly, there are many which I believed should have been retired (maybe Lee, Karl, Alex and Agatha from the past 2 years. Honestly, I thought Lee had the best shot of all of these to be retired, followed by maybe Alex), but they weren't. I don't make my predictions on what I think should be retired, but what I think will be retired. Darren23 | 15:13, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :::For my retirement predictions, I take into account three things: statistics (55%), reaction (40%), and past occurances (5%). --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 15:18, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :::::I make my predictions on what storm names I think should be retired. Although i'm not sure if the storm will be retired, if it killed enough people and caused enough damage (Hanna in one of those cases), then it should be retired IMO. What will happen isn't always what I think should happen, but that's just my opinion, of course, and if i'm wrong in the end, so be it. Ryan1000 18:26, June 1, 2012 (UTC) My predictions: #Alberto - 0.1% - Some slight effects in the Southeast, but it's not likely. #Beryl - 10% - Lots of Memorial Day hype, but damage will probably not be enough for retirement. #Chris - 0.01% - A rare and unusual storm! The 0.01% is for what he accomplished. #Debby - 20% - Loads of flooding in Florida. #Ernesto - 25% - No Emily. #Florence - 0% - NO. #Gordon - 5% - I underestimated your damage in the Azores. #Helene - 2% - Gave Mexico some rain. #Isaac - 60% - Everyone, call me crazy, but a storm causing $2 billion is NOTHING to giggle at. It is almost safe to say that all our Atlantic "I" names are now replacements of previous ones. #Joyce - 0% - Ususally, I don't post a storm's retirement chance while it's spinning, but Joyce has no hope of going. #Kirk - 0% - See you in six years! #Leslie - 4% - Newfoundland made it out okay. #Michael - 0.05% - Amazing unexpected major, but really, I just gave Mike 0.05% for shoving the word "intensity" in my cheeks. #Nadine - 2% - Gave the Azores some rain. #Oscar - 0% - Never in a million years. AndrewTalk To Me 16:19, June 22, 2012 (UTC) : We've started this already? Really? Lol. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:39, June 23, 2012 (UTC) ::: I mentioned it's not worth the trouble to start it after just few (fish) storms in the season. Unless Debby turns out to be threatening for Corpus Christi, I won't be posting mine for a while. 'Ryan1000' 04:01, June 24, 2012 (UTC) ::: It's a little to early to do retirements, the next chance for me to post mine will be when a big hurricane is threatening a land mass, Debby came close, but it just decided to be picked up by the trough. 18:03, July 3, 2012 (UTC) My Percentages: :1. Alberto: 0% - Only slight effects. :2. Beryl: 2% - Not alot of damage. :3. Chris: 0% - Became a hurricane, and that's about it. :4. Debby: 25% - Some flooding in Florida. :5. Ernesto: 25% - Effects not damaging enough. :6. Florence: 0% - See you in 2018. :7. Gordon: 15% - Probably not much in Europe :8. Helene: 10% - Didn't amount to much. :9. Isaac: 60% - Looks like Isaac is our first real retirement contender. :10. Joyce: 0% - Joyce, you didn't have a choice. :11. Kirk: 0% - Kirk won't affect anyone. :12. Leslie: 10% - Newfoundland turned out okay. :13. Michael: 0% - First major of the season, but no. :14. Nadine: 5% - Azores made out okay. :15. Oscar: 0% - Nope. Simlover123 (talk) 03:08, August 13, 2012 (UTC) My turn Alberto:1% unsual doesn`t mean retirement Beryl: 10% rare may storm but not a lot of damage. it even help with th drought Chris: 0% rare don`t earn retirement Debby: 30% a lot of flood in Florida and tornadoes but no allison Ernesto: 25% probable a cat 2 but no a lot of damage for Mexico standards Florence:0% Meh... see you in 2018 Gordon:7% don`t know if he produced damge but if he did maybe not a lot May do some in the Azores Helene:5% Fail even though you kill two people Isaac:85% the thing is it would be a bust if you stay with at least 5billion dollars in damage you are out imo even Dr Masters think you are gone. Joyce:0% FAIL!!! even Florence was better than you I pity storms like you. Kirk 0% you were near major hurricane but no effects on land Leslie 5% just some winds to Newfoundland Michael 0% the most beautiful storm of the season but no Nadine 5% some impacts after all Oscar 0% Do I even need to explain it. Patty????? Allanjeffs 20:41, August 18, 2012 (UTC) Now that we've had a decent number of storms, I'll do mine. *Alberto: 0% - Gets points for the early kickoff, but if there was any impact, it was negligible. *Beryl: 10% - This storm was amazing to watch. Second pre-season storm for the first time in 104 years, second ''May storm for the first time in 125 years, strongest pre-season U.S. landfall on record, strongest pre-season storm in 42 years (Hurricane Alma 1970)... the fact that Beryl accomplished all of these meteorological achievements without ever becoming a hurricane makes it seem all the more badass. Impact, however, was fairly minor, even though the timing sucked. *Chris: 0% - Put on a freakshow in the far northern Atlantic, but didn't hurt anybody in the process. *Debby: 15% - I'm skeptical about the damage figure being as low as $42.5 million. Take a look at this. 28.78 inches of rain? Wow. With such a large area receiving 7+ inches of rain, I wouldn't necessarily expect retirement-worthy figures, but still. *Ernesto: 10% - Wasn't as bad as Arlene last year, if stronger. *Florence: 0% - Gets an F. *Gordon: 10% - It looks like the Azores made it out OK. *Helene: 2% - Looked very sickly when it made landfall in Mexico, so I doubt there's much damage there. I also doubt that the damage and 2 fatalities in Trinidad & Tobago will count since they were from the remnants of then-TD 7, but then they wouldn't be enough for retirement anyway. *Isaac: N/A - Still active, but I'm growing increasingly concerned about Mississippi. *Joyce: 0% - At least Florence was respectably strong. --HurricaneMaker99 16:44, August 26, 2012 (UTC) Ryan grand has made his speech: *Alberto - 0% - Alberto wasn't a "fail" because it formed 2 weeks early, but no impacts, so no retirement. *Beryl - 5% - I give Beryl some credit for her early formation, landfall, and impacts, but it wasn't that bad; in fact, it was helpful for relieving the drought in that part of the lower 48. *Chris - 0% - I gotta say, I'm impressed Chris managed to pull of a hurricane, but let's be serious here. No impacts, no retirement. *Debby - 30% - Over 300 million isn't negligible, but for retirement, it's just not enough. *Ernesto - 25% - He did a sizable 200 million in damage, but still likely won't be retired. *Florence - 0% - Little Flo didn't pack a blow...Yeah, she's the last original "F" name from the 1979-now lists (like Isaac is the last original "I" name), but sorry Flo, no chance of retirement. Better luck in 2018. *Gordon - 10% - It certainly caused some impacts in the Azores, but probrably not enough for retirement. *Helene - 5% - Very little impact. *Isaac - 60% - Damage is about 2 billion, with 44 deaths, though mostly in Haiti. Retirement's a maybe here. *Joyce - 0% - You have no choice Joyce. Try again in 2018. *Kirk - 0% - Captian Kirk shall not live long and prosper. He'll be back in 2018. *Leslie - 10% - Wasn't too bad for Newfoundland. *Michael - 0% - Might have been an unexpected major, but it still didn't hit land. *Nadine - 5% - Hit the Azores but nothing severe. *Oscar - 0% - Epic fail. *Patty - 0% - Nothing...nothing at all. Ryan1000 21:40, August 21, 2012 (UTC) My predictions: *Alberto - <1% - very minor effects on the East Coast. *Beryl - 10% - strongest pre-season storm to hit the U.S., although effects were minor. *Chris - 0% - fishspinner. *Debby - 20% - moderate effects, but nothing too severe. *Ernesto - 15% - some moderate effects, although Mexico has seen much worse before. *Florence - 0% - fishspinner. *Gordon - 10% - some impact on the Azores, but nothing severe. *Helene - 5% - minor impact. *Isaac - 60% - Current damage estimate is $3 billion. *Joyce - 0% - fishspinner. *Kirk - 0% - fishspinner. *Leslie - ?? - to early to determine, however, Bermuda should be watching this storm. Andros 1337 (talk) 23:07, August 31, 2012 (UTC) The Great Seer Speaketh: *Alberto: 3% - This storm did cause rough surf along the east coast that required several water rescues. *Beryl: 15% - Beryl was amazing. It was damn near a hurricane when it hit Florida...in May! Crazy. I was flying home from London the day it made landfall and we were wondering if it was gonna affect us. Turns out it didn't but it was definitely interesting. Killed six people but didn't cause much damage. *Chris: 0% - Probably made Grand Banks fishing a little interesting though. It was a beautiful storm. *Debby: 25% - Caused very severe flooding across northern Florida and killed nine people. *Ernesto: 15% - Raised hell, but in the end, it wasn't much. It did kill seven people. *Florence: 0% - Fell on its face way out in no man's land. Not even sure the Cape Verdes got a drop of rain. *Gordon: 5% - It got fun in the Azores for a bit. *Helene: 10% - Caused some minor flooding in Mexico, killed 2. *Isaac: 60% - Isaac is a borderline retirement case. New Orleans's $14 billion super levees did their job but Isaac caused incredible flooding in surrounding parishes and it may yet get worse. Death tolls and damage figures have gone up. Right now, the death toll sits at about nine in the US and 44 total with damage estimates at $3-4 billion. That's a pretty good case but we'll have to wait and see. If the US formally requests its retirement, it will probably be retired. *Joyce: 0% - Isaac's outflow had her taken outside and shot in the face lol. *Kirk: 0% - The bad Star Trek jokes will return in six years. See you in 2018 Captain Kirk! Godspeed. *Leslie: ?? *(to be continued) -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:28, September 2, 2012 (UTC) Here's mine (Liz) *Alberto = 1/10. Break the mould. *Beryl = 2/10. She wasn't that bad after all... *Chris = -1/10. Greenland fail. *Debby = 3.5/10. Debz, did you flood Florida? Debby: Yes I did but I don't think I'll be kicked out of the list yet. *Ernesto = 4.5/10. When I walk on the islands, this is what I see. Everybody stops and staring at ME, I got water in my squirtgun and I ain't afraid to squirt it, squirt it, squirt is, I'm Ernie and I know it. (Ernie: I WON'T GET KICKED OFF THE LIST!) *Florence = 0/10. I think the machine broke down.... *Gordon = 2/10. Caused a Portuguese hurricane party, but was not like Ramsey. Good gordon! :D *Helene = 1/10. Umm... The Carribbean saw much worse. But H storms are known for unpredictibility. *Isaac = 9/10. That was like another Katrina, but weaker! :( *Joyce = 0/10. Florence's sister. *Kirk = 0/10. Nice and kind. *Leslie = 2/10. ok cool les *Michael = 1/10. THRILLER! THRILLER NIGHT! Ok, this storm fails 100% when it comes to landfall, but good work on the major part. *Nadine = 0/10. Even Cheryl Cole could do better than that! Come on Nadine, you fail 999%. Nadine: OH I'm insatiable (not really lol.) * 19:52, September 3, 2012 (UTC) Replacement names This might be a bit soon, but since we have a reasonable canidate for retirement, anyone have suggestions for Isaac? I know we're desperately running out of (descent) male "I" names, but I have a few here: *Icarus *Ignatius *Ioan *Irving *Ichabod Of these five, my personal pick would be Icarus. 'Ryan1000' 22:11, August 31, 2012 (UTC) Here are mine: *Italo *Italus *Innocenzo *Ippolito *Ignazio *Inigo *Inocencio *Ildefonso *Isandro *Iago *Immanuel *Indigo *Irwin *Izzy (Yes, this can be a male name) *Isamu *Ifor *Ilswyn And please don't tell me the names have to be of English, Spanish, or French origin, since there was never such a requirement by the WMO. Andros 1337 (talk) 23:01, August 31, 2012 (UTC) I like the names, though a few of them sound weird to me. I'll stick with Icarus. Also, Irwin's not a possibility IMO since it is already in use on the EPac; 2011 most rescently. Ignazio is a little confusing with Ignacio, as is Ignatius, but if the WMO can have two variants of the same name on both the ATL and EPac lists (i.e. Frank and Franklin, 2010 EPac and 2011 ATL), I wouldn't rule it out. I don't think the ''exact same name can be on both lists at the same time though, because if a severe Atlantic hurricane named Irwin hit Mexico and they requested it to be retired, the EPac Irwin would have to be retired as well to avoid confusion, and we'd need two new "I" replacements. And yeah, names don't have to be of English, French, or Spanish origin. Karl of 2010 is German, Igor of 2010 was Russian, ect. Ryan1000 23:49, August 31, 2012 (UTC) Ion Iden :this one Iron Ira: or this one can be the replacement of Isaac. IcariusAllanjeffs 01:04, September 1, 2012 (UTC) Here are my replacements: *Isa *Ila (Arabic name) *Ilya (Russian name) *'Iestin' (variant of Justin) (my pick) *Immanuel *Innocente *Innocent *Ioan (too similar to Ione?) We really don't have many unweird "I" names. AndrewTalk To Me 01:14, September 1, 2012 (UTC) I don't think Ioan is too confusing with Ione, but it could be. I personally pronounce them differently. I just thought a few of Andross's "I" names looked weird. Not all though, and we don't have as many "I" names as we do other names. Isa sounds feminine, but it could be either, even though it sounds weird. Ryan1000 03:24, September 1, 2012 (UTC) ::My pick would probably be either Irving or Iggy. --HurricaneMaker99 14:10, September 1, 2012 (UTC) I almost hope Isaac won't be retired because we're running out of 'I' names lol: *Irvin *Irving *Immanuel *Innocente *Ingram *Ibrahim *Innis *Ioan *Ira *Ishmael (maybe there are some Moby Dick fans at the WMO) *Isa (was used in the West Pacific in 1997, it was one of the many Cat 5s that year) *Izzy The WMO has proven they are not shy about selecting Bible names, so any of this is fair game. Irvin and Ira are probably my favorite of this list. Irvin may be a little too close to Irwin, which is in use in the EPAC and Ira may be too close to Ida, which is in use, but I doubt either of those would present a problem. My concern is that, even though there are some good names remaining, that they're gonna start picking ridiculous stuff like Dorian in 2007 and Gonzalo in 2008. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:51, September 2, 2012 (UTC) Wouldn't Isaiah be possible? 03:18, September 2, 2012 (UTC) Gonzalo was a joke. Gary would have been my personal pick for Gustav, but they had to pick that. Ian would have been my pick for Ike in 2008 (which also replaced Typhoon Ike in 1984), but Ian wasn't used as a replacement until Igor got the boot in 2010. Fernand was a complete F**k up; Fernando would have been the better choice by far. And we still have some descent "I" names left, but hopefully the WMO won't pick anything stupid. 'Ryan1000' 05:20, September 2, 2012 (UTC) Robbie, '''Isaiah' is too similar to Isaias, Ike's replacement. My replacement for Isaac, as said above, is Iestin. AndrewTalk To Me 05:50, September 2, 2012 (UTC) I'd pick Irving. Irving '''was already used in the WPac basin in the early 90's. 11:46, September 2, 2012 (UTC) Andrew please no. I can't even pronounce it. Ryan, I consider "Ferndand" to be a typo and will always use "Fernando" unless arm twisted. Hell, "Ferdinand" would've been better. "Dorian" was the worst though. There were so many great 'D' names to chose from: Derek, Darren, Daryl...the list goes on and on, but they chose that. Unbelievable. The WMO seems to have favored short names recently (Ike, Ida, Don, Ian), especially for 'I' storms, which is why I give a slight edge to "Ira". Of the seven 'I' names that have been retired (all in the past 11 years), five have been replaced by names of four letters or less. So I would look at the shorter names as being the most likely. But, again, predicting what the WMO is gonna do is like predicting what these hurricanes are gonna do. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:16, September 2, 2012 (UTC) ::"There were so many great 'D' names to chose from: Derek, Darren, Daryl..." ...Dylan? ;) (though FWIW, I'm in the minority that likes Dorian... but still) --HurricaneMaker99 21:33, September 2, 2012 (UTC) ::Yo. Liz here. ::Mmm.... Probably Ivor, Ismail, Ibby, Irving, Irvo, or Iggy to replace Isaac. Something nice but not too silly. ::Silliest Hurricane Names Yet: :*Humberto? :*Fabian? (Fab Ian?) :*Dorian? (Door Ian?) :*Olga? :*Nestor? (Birds have Nestors.) :*"Isiahhs?" spelt wrong? :*Fernand? (Ferdinand? Fernando?!?) :*Gonzalo (Rip off of gonzalez) :*Joaquin? (Joachim, much?) :*Christoble? (Superpower?) Epac now... :*Jova? :*Bud? :*Pillar? :*Ignahcio? :*Dora the Explorer?! :*Nada? :*Fasto? (What on earth is a Fasto?) :*Polo? (Water Polo? Or maybe lyrics from Nicki Minaj's Super Bass?) :*Tico? :*Xina? :*Cosme? (Isn't that a girls' name?) :*Kiko? (Isn't that a girls name?) :*Hernan? :*Eleda? :*Paine? (That's a surname, like Liam Payne of One Direction?) :*Gurrllliermo? (however that's spelt?) ::Those are the silliest ATL and EPAC names I have heard of. What do you think? ::No names need to be of English French of Spanish origin. Igor/Ivan/Olga them lot were Slavic, Rina is an Indian name (used by Japan too,) Omar is an Arabic name, Ingrid is a Norwegian name and so on. ::What do you think? Please comment! 22:59, September 2, 2012 (UTC) ::Also add Hortense, Gerda, Francelia, Isbell, Debra, Felice, Gilda, Fifi, Hallie, Dottie, Emmy, Inga and Babe. BTW, 188, Cosme and Kiko aren't girls' names. 07:49, September 4, 2012 (UTC) ::Yes they are girls names, 219. :*Cosme, as a girl's name is a variant of (Greek), and the meaning of Cosme is "order, beauty" :*Kiko is a Japanese girls' name, a variant of Keiko, meaning, "be glad." 19:38, September 4, 2012 (UTC) I don't think all of the names are ridiculous, but as long as the WMO doesn't choose anything stupid for Isaac, I'll be ok. I don't think all of the replacement names are strange, except for Dorian, Fernand, and probrably Gonzalo. And the WMO can replace names with other names that look like the retired name (Rita>Rina or Stan>Sean), so Isaiah could replace Isaac even though it's not far off from it. And Andrew, Isaiah and Isaias may sound similar, but I don't pronounce them the same way. I personally don't confuse Ivan with Ian (though Ivan's Russian pronunciation is ee-vahn), nor Ioan and Ione (I pronounce Ione as eye-own-e), even though they're just one or two letters off. I thought Irma would be Irene's replacement last year, and it was. Hopefully I'll be right again this year with Icarus replacing Isaac. ''Ryan1000'' 23:34, September 2, 2012 (UTC) :Personally, my picks would either be Ippolito or Ignazio, considering the relative lack of Italian names. Andros 1337 (talk) 00:49, September 3, 2012 (UTC) :::Most of the names recently have been fine, but there have been a few that are really unfortunate lol. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 10:18, September 3, 2012 (UTC) :::Ryan I like the name Dorian.Gonzalo was put because in Cuba is a very popular name and maybe they ask for it and Fernand is also a good replacement in my opinion.and anon all the names that you have ask for the epac are all very popular in Mexico like elida or Pilar and Fausto.Allanjeffs 21:03, September 3, 2012 (UTC) :::::That's not what I think though Allan. There were so many better "D" names to choose from IMO, but they picked Dorian. I do not like Fernand so much either because it's a French name. I think Fernando (the Spanish version of Fernand) would've been better, especially considering Felix caused most of it's damage in a Spanish-speaking country. The same goes for Gonzalo. I think Gonzalez would've been a better replacement, but Gary was my pick for Gustav in 2008. ''Ryan1000'' 01:04, September 4, 2012 (UTC) :::::Gonzalez is a last name Gonzalo is the first name. Allanjeffs 01:52, September 4, 2012 (UTC) Although there may be abnormal names on today's ATL and EPAC lists, Liz, you should get a load of what they used during the old days: ATL Female Name Fails (some of these are another Wikia contributor's ideas): *Gerda (Or this one) *Francelia *Kendra (I don't see anything wrong with this, 219). *Isbell *Debra (Or this one!) *Felice *Gilda *Fifi (SERIOUSLY?!) *Hallie *Dottie *Emmy *Inga *Babe (Wha...?) *Cleo (Come on!) *Candy (Really?) *Beulah *Blanche (I can't even prononunce this one!) Sorry if I've sidetracked the discussion or if I've confused anyone. --AndrewTalk To Me 11:17, September 4, 2012 (UTC) Lol! Fifi and the Flowertots? Blanche from Coronation Street? (a popular soap drama series on TV) Cleo? Cleopatra! Gilda? Gilma? Like the Epac in Hawaii? Hallie? Halle Berry? Candy? (I see Toons on Toontown called Candy) Okay... I agree that some of these names are kinda weird. Anyway... Beulah is an old fashioned name. But the name Fifi cracked me up XD What do you think ppl? Which is the weirdest name in Epac and Atl history? (one boy and one girl name plz.) ty! 19:44, September 4, 2012 (UTC) I don't think all the names were confusing, and I wouldn't sidetrack the discussion too much. The point of this was to speculate over what would replace Isaac. I'm placing my money on Icarus, though many other names are avaliable. ''Ryan1000'' 22:20, September 4, 2012 (UTC) Liz, the weirdest ATL name EVER used IMO, is Fifi, and the weirdest EPAC name is Xina, but this usually isn't the right place to say these kind of things. AndrewTalk To Me 23:37, September 4, 2012 (UTC) Hmm...Isaac will most likely be retired and I think that these names below will probably be brought up at the WMO session in 2013. *Ignatius (this name is one of my top picks) *Innis *Icarus *Idan *Inver (this name is one of my top picks) *Irvin *Ilya *Irving *Ivor (this name is one of my top picks) Ignatius, Inver, or Ivor is the ones I think will most likely replace Isaac in 2013. Wow, the WMO is definitely running out of "I" named storms, the better think up some new names fast or a past hurricane name could be brought back D: STO12 (talk) 01:04, September 5, 2012 (UTC) Otto, I don't think that bringing up a retired hurricane name will occur (Although it technically happened with Carol and Edna). We still have some "normal" I names, then we hit the crazy ones. AndrewTalk To Me 02:00, September 5, 2012 (UTC) Okaii. Let's get all the list together. isaac could prob get retired. so what do yall think of my list :D 22:37, September 24, 2012 (UTC) Here's mine: *Ambert *Bora *Cort *Delia *Ezra *Faith *Gabe *Hope *'''Iestin *Joy *Kade *Lucy *Mort *Natalie *Oliver *Pearl *Rupert *Shelby *Tyler *Vera *Wyatt AndrewTalk To Me 23:07, September 24, 2012 (UTC) The H Factor (Hurricane Talent Show?) Well well well... I'm back now. What about, (this is a cool idea, huh?) We could put all the hurricanes (yearly) into a little talent show that you could all possibly do, "The H Factor." ''It is a spin off of the X factor and I'm just wondering if this is a cool idea... So how it works is... #All Epac and Atlantic hurricanes are entered as a year group (e.g. All 2012 hurricanes Epac and Atl would enter as the 2012 Team.) #Pick 4 Judges from past seasons (two boy hurricanes and two girl hurricanes.) #Pick 1 Presenter from past seasons. #Judge the hurricanes on their talent (i.e. strength, longetivity, what they do, etc) #There should be one winner per basin. (Technically, I mean which was your favourite storm of the season?) #Put who you think should be judges and presenter at the bottom here. Example (this is mine, I'm Liz:) 2012 JUDGES: *Ivan (2004) 'Head Judge' *Rita (2005) *Jova (2011) *Floyd (1999) 2012 PRESENTER: Katrina (2005) Then everyone on the wiki should judge how the 2012 hurricanes would be based on what they do! What do you all think? Which hurricanes should be the judges and presenters and why? 18:06, September 17, 2012 (UTC) Maybe: Dora (1964) Carla (1961) Allen (1980) Igor (2010) Presenter: Fabian (2003) Cool idea, Liz! AndrewTalk To Me 21:22, September 17, 2012 (UTC) okie!! who will be head judge tho? And... ok, would you like fabian or katrina to be presenter of atl or epac? ok, and yep, this is the 2012 official lineup :D 22:59, September 18, 2012 (UTC) HAMMYS 2012 Ok... what about awards for the 2012 AHS and PHS season? Nominating starts now!! 2012 and 2011 storms are included and you can vote per category... *1 Epac 2011 storm *1 ATL 2011 storm *1 Epac 2012 storm *1 Atl 2012 storm. (that means you should nominate 4 storms per category!) Ok... here are the categories... *Best Male Storm *Best Female Storm *Worst Male Storm *Worst Female Storm *Weirdest Storm *Favourite "Damager" (storm that does lots of damage) *Weirdest Girl's Storm Name *Weirdest Boy's Storm Name *2012 Storm of the Year *2011 Storm of the Year 'ROUND 2 STARTS OCTOBER.' Winners will be announced in Christmas. So start nominating!! Andrew444's nommies My casts: *Kenneth, Philippe, Daniel, and Michael *Hilary, Ophelia, Miriam, and Nadine *Greg, Jose, John, and Alberto *Fernanda, Gert, Kristy, and Joyce *Irwin, Lee, Daniel, and Chris *Beatriz, Don, Bud, and Beryl *Norma, Rina, Willa, and Patty *Ramon, Sean, Bud, and Kirk *Michael + Daniel *Ophelia + Kenneth AndrewTalk To Me 12:23, September 29, 2012 (UTC) Liz's nommies here's mine (IK, I'm being funny here LOL) *'Best Male Storm''' (Kennehhtth, Phillippe, Fab-ey-oh, Ernesto. *LOL, I know! I'm random!*) *'Best Female Storm' (Jova, Irene, Carlotta, Nadine.) *'Worst Male Storm' (Greg *boring!* Jo-Zay, John, Kirk.) *'Worst Female Storm' (Fernandeeeh, Cindy, Kristy, Joyce.) *'Weirdest Storm' (Kenneth, Ophelia, Nadine, Fabio.) *'Favourite "Damager"' (storm that does lots of damage) (Joe-Vah, Irene, Isaac, Carlotta.) *'Weirdest Girl's Storm Name' (Jova, Gert, Gilma, Patty. *Sorry, but who is named Gilma or Jova?!?*) *'Weirdest Boy's Storm Name' (Eugene, Phillippe, Bud, Gordon *yes, but I can't think of anything else*) *'2012 Storm of the Year' (Isaac/Carlotta) *'2011 Storm of the Year' (Irene/Jova) P.S. Joke: I know a French hurricane that makes flip flops. Phillipe Flop. Good luck stormies!! 23:04, September 29, 2012 (UTC) Fabio's pronunciation is actually FAH-bee-o, Jova's is HO-vah, and Jose's is HO-zay (Not trying to be rude). AndrewTalk To Me 23:37, September 29, 2012 (UTC) Okay, TYVM for telling me XD LOL :D I already know fabio and jose lol. XD 18:33, September 30, 2012 (UTC) OK PPL! you can start voting for your winner now! 18:45, October 3, 2012 (UTC) Vote for Your Winner! *Best Male Storm (Kenneth/Phillippe/Daniel/Michael/Fabio/Ernie) *Best Female Storm (Hillary/Nadine/Ophelia/Miriam/Jova/Carly/Irene) *Worst Male Storm (Greg/Jose/John/Alberto/Kirk) *Worst Female Storm ('Nanda/Gertie/Kristy/Joyce/Cindy) *Weirdest Storm (Irwin/Lee/Dan/Chris/Kenny/'Phelia/Nadine/Fabio) *Favourite "Damager" (storm that does lots of damage) (Beatriz/Don/Buddeh/Beryl/Jova/Irene/Isaac/Carly) *Weirdest Girl's Storm Name (Norma/Rina/Willa/Patty/Jova/Gert/Gillma) *Weirdest Boy's Storm Name (Ramon/Sean/Bud/Kirk/Eugene/Phillippee/Gordon) *2012 Storm of the Year (Mikey/Dan/Isaac/Carly) *2011 Storm of the Year ('Phelia/Kenny/Irene/J-V) Ok!! start voting ppl plz! get everyone on the wiki to vote! (P.S. Carly is my nickname for carlotta, Buddeh for Bud, J-V for Jova (even though pronunciation is hova.) Dan for Daniel, 'Phelia for Ophelia, Mikey for Michael (THRILLER!) Ok, so people, plz put your nominations down! Thanks a lot!! (P.S. Which past storms would make great presenters and why?) :D 18:45, October 3, 2012 (UTC) My votes: *Kenneth *Nadine *John *Joyce *Nadine *Beryl *Willa *Kirk *Isaac *Irene AndrewTalk To Me 00:14, October 5, 2012 (UTC) My votes: *Michael *Nadine *Greg *Gert *Nadine *Irene *Jova *Bud *Isaac *Irene Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:50, October 5, 2012 (UTC)